India wary of resurgence of northeast insurgency after Hasina’s ouster

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has expressed grave concerns about the potential resurgence of insurgent activities in Northeast India, following recent political upheaval in Bangladesh. Sarma’s apprehensions center on the possibility that Bangladesh may once again become a haven for insurgent groups from India’s northeastern states.

In a recent statement, Sarma voiced his worries that Bangladesh could again become a refuge for insurgent groups from India’s Northeast. “During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, all northeast-based insurgent groups were driven out,” Sarma noted. “So it is a concern for us, and we hope Bangladesh does not become a safehouse for northeast insurgents again.” Sarma’s comments reflect a broader unease about the impact of political instability in Bangladesh on India’s security landscape.

The political situation in Bangladesh has dramatically changed with the violent ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This upheaval has raised fears about the potential resurgence of insurgent activities that were previously quelled under Hasina’s administration.

Angshuman Choudhury, a New Delhi-based researcher and former Associate Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, elaborated on these concerns in his recent article, What Sheikh Hasina’s Downfall Means for Security in Northeast India, published in the Hindustan Times. “The end of Hasina’s rule amid violent street protests will have direct ramifications on India’s security environment,” Choudhury wrote. “This is particularly true for the Northeast, which shares a long border and a fraught history of cross-border insurgencies with Bangladesh.”

According to Choudhury, during the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government of Begum Khaleda Zia, Dhaka allowed a host of Indian insurgent groups (IIGs) from the Northeast—including those from Assam, Tripura, and Nagaland—to use Bangladeshi territory as a base for networking, arms procurement, training, and planning. Bangladesh practically became a launchpad for insurgent attacks against India.

A significant shift occurred during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. Hasina, an ally of New Delhi, took stringent measures to combat these insurgent activities. When Hasina took charge in 1996, her government arrested the then-general secretary of ULFA, Anup Chetia. It was a clear message to New Delhi—India could rely on the Awami League government to secure the Northeast, Choudhury said.

“When she returned to power in 2009, her government intensified efforts against the IIGs in Bangladesh, rounding up top rebel leaders and handing them over to India. These included senior ULFA leaders such as Arabinda Rajkhowa and Sasadhar Choudhury. In 2013, the Hasina and Manmohan Singh governments signed an extradition treaty, setting the stage for the quick transfer of wanted individuals from Bangladesh to India. Two years later, Dhaka handed ULFA supremo, Chetia, back to India,” Choudhury added.

Choudhury noted that subsequent Hasina governments played a pivotal role in diffusing the insurgent threat in the Northeast. “While many of the IIGs eventually moved to western Myanmar, Dhaka consistently denied them a safe haven right next to India and, more importantly, easy access to arms trafficking routes in the Bay of Bengal.”

The abrupt end of Hasina’s rule, however, has sparked concerns about a potential power vacuum. Choudhury warns that the rise of political factions aligned with the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) could jeopardize the stability that Hasina worked to establish. “For India, this could revive the ghosts of the 1990s and early 2000s,” he cautioned. Subversive networks, including those linked to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), might regain ground, further complicating the security scenario.

Despite these fears, Choudhury expresses cautious optimism. “The overall politico-security landscape of the Northeast has shifted. The older IIGs, such as ULFA, have splintered and joined political processes. The only non-ceasefire faction of ULFA has been reduced to a non-entity, with its leader, Paresh Baruah, living in obscurity somewhere along the Sino-Myanmar border.

Others, such as the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), People’s Liberation Army-Manipur (PLA-Manipur), and United National Liberation Front (UNLF), are confined to western Myanmar. The Tripura insurgency, which had strong linkages with Bangladesh, has all but petered out, much like Meghalaya-based armed groups like the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) that once set up bases right across the border,” Choudhury wrote, adding that there is little for anti-India actors to exploit from Bangladeshi soil today.

Yet, the complexities of the region’s security dynamics cannot be overlooked. The increasing presence of China in India’s neighborhood and ongoing sectarian tensions within India, such as those arising from the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), add layers of complexity to the situation. “India must be cognizant of these precarities and remain diplomatically agile and open-minded if it wants to keep its Northeast secure and peaceful,” Choudhury emphasized.

MT