In a historic political comeback, Donald Trump reclaimed the US presidency on Tuesday night, becoming the nation’s 47th president, four years after losing his first bid for re-election. Trump’s victory marks the first time in 120 years that a US president has returned to office following a previous electoral defeat.
Trump’s successful re-election campaign, secured by winning crucial swing states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, repositions him in the White House with a mandate to implement his bold second-term vision. Trump and his supporters celebrated the win as a vindication, especially after a tumultuous post-presidency marked by two impeachments, four criminal indictments, and an ongoing legal battle over a criminal conviction.
According to The Washington Post, the Republican candidate defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by focusing on a message that resonated with voters concerned about rising inflation, immigration control, and overseas military conflicts. Preliminary exit polls showed Trump continuing to hold strong support among men and White voters without college degrees, while he also gained ground with Latino voters and young people, historically Democratic constituencies.
With at least 51 seats secured, Republicans are set to retake control of the Senate, ending a four-year Democratic majority in the chamber and positioning Trump to advance his legislative agenda with more ease. The outcome of the House races remains uncertain, though a Republican-controlled Senate signals a favorable environment for Trump’s executive and judicial nominations.
At 78, Trump is now the oldest president-elect, with JD Vance, his 40-year-old running mate and first-term Senator from Ohio, set to become one of the youngest vice presidents.
Trump’s campaign against Harris emphasized widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s economic and foreign policies, which many voters felt had veered too far left. Trump’s personal attacks on Harris, occasionally drawing criticism for using racially charged language, echoed his 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton. Once again, American voters opted for Trump over a historic opportunity to elect the country’s first female president.
In his victory speech from West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump declared, “We’re going to fix everything about our country, and we made history for a reason tonight.” His speech outlined his second-term priorities, including pledges to resolve the Ukraine conflict, cut energy costs, implement massive tax cuts, and overhaul global trade alliances.
What Trump’s victory means for geopolitics
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in January 2025 with Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, international allies are bracing for significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy.
One of Trump’s main foreign policy priorities is expected to be an intervention in the Ukraine conflict, pushing for a ceasefire along the current frontlines. This move may include a potential settlement that recognizes Russia’s territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea and regions occupied since the full-scale invasion in 2022. Trump’s stance could also align with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call to block future NATO membership for Ukraine, a decision that could create new tensions with European allies invested in Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
In pursuit of a swift resolution, Trump might leverage his well-known skepticism toward NATO to pressure European allies, potentially even threatening to reconsider U.S. commitment to the alliance unless a diplomatic solution with Russia is reached. The expected approach has raised concerns in Europe, where leaders worry that a Trump-led administration could act unilaterally, compromising the stability of NATO and European defense.
Trump’s return is also anticipated to fortify U.S. support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, particularly in their respective strategies to counter Iranian influence in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pledged to dismantle Iran’s proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, may feel emboldened by Trump’s election. Netanyahu’s recent dismissal of his defense minister, a critic of the Gaza offensive, suggests a continued escalation in regional hostilities. Trump’s support could extend to backing Israel in further military actions against Iran, which might impact the delicate balance of power in the Middle East. At the same time, Trump could use this support as leverage in negotiations with Putin, given Russia’s growing reliance on Iranian support in Ukraine.
Trump’s stance on China is expected to carry forward policies he implemented in his first term, including increased tariffs and potential sanctions. Although he has criticized Chinese influence, Trump has also shown willingness for pragmatic negotiations with President Xi Jinping. Key U.S. allies in Asia, including South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, may question Trump’s commitment to security guarantees, particularly for Taiwan, given his mixed stance on treaty obligations.
Trump’s unpredictability regarding North Korea could create further uncertainty in the region. Known for taking a volatile approach with Pyongyang, Trump may push for concessions from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as part of a broader strategy involving Russia and China.
India faces unique challenges under Trump’s anticipated policies. During his first term, Trump’s “Hire American” stance brought tighter restrictions on the H-1B visa program, impacting many skilled Indian professionals. These policies may resurface, affecting Indian tech workers and potentially straining trade and immigration discussions between the two countries. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has indicated that trade and immigration will likely require “difficult negotiation” if Trump’s administration returns to its restrictive visa policies.
However, defense cooperation between the U.S. and India may continue to strengthen due to shared priorities in the Indo-Pacific, including defense sales and joint exercises aimed at countering Chinese influence.
India-US defence cooperation might still thrive due to a mutual focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Defence sales, technology transfers, and joint exercises are likely to remain key components of this relationship, as both nations seek to limit China’s regional dominance.
Trump’s continued efforts to reduce U.S. reliance on China could open economic opportunities for India. Many American companies are already exploring options outside of China, a trend that could accelerate under Trump’s presidency. A report by JM Financial Institutional Securities suggests that new tariffs on Chinese imports could drive U.S. companies to consider India as an alternative production hub, especially in industries like auto components and chemicals.
Indian sectors such as electronics and auto parts may benefit if they can expand their U.S. market presence to capitalize on this shift. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs on China could boost demand for Indian metal and ceramic tile exporters, though global trade disruptions may create price fluctuations, affecting long-term profitability. (With inputs from The Conversation and Indian Express)