Why India is confident in dismissing NSCN-IM’s demands

The Indian government has maintained a firm stance on rejecting calls for Naga sovereignty and demands for a separate flag and constitution for Nagalim, even after the signing of the Framework Agreement on August 3, 2015. Despite rounds of talks with the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM), New Delhi remains resolute, asserting that the country’s military, economic, and diplomatic strength leaves little room for further concessions.

Reports from Swarajya, a right-leaning Indian news outlet known for its pro-government perspectives, offer insight into why India remains confident in its position. The publication highlighted government and security officials, emphasizing that India’s growing strength on both the global and domestic fronts limits the influence of separatist movements, reducing the likelihood of a renewed insurgency.

“There can be no concessions on these two demands. After having done away with Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir, the Government of India can never agree to enacting a similar provision for any other state. Thus, a separate flag and constitution is out of the question,” a senior officer from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), involved in the talks with the NSCN, told Swarajya.

India’s position is strengthened by its increasing military and economic power, alongside its growing global influence. A senior officer of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), also involved in discussions with the NSCN leadership, stated, “India is a strong country today, both economically and militarily. Also, India occupies a prominent place on the global stage and is not a weak state that can be pushed around. India’s response to resumption of insurgency by NSCN will be muscular and robust. The NSCN leadership and its cadres are all in Nagaland, which has a strong presence of the Indian Army, paramilitary, and security forces. Muivah cannot hope to slip into Bangladesh or Myanmar with his cadres.”

Beyond military strength, the shifting international perspective on insurgency also supports India’s confidence. The NSCN, once able to find sympathy and support from certain Western capitals, now faces dwindling international tolerance for insurgency. “But the world had little tolerance or sympathy for insurgency anymore. India also has a strong global presence today, and other countries, especially the western nations, will be wary of taking any step that India will consider hostile,” Jonathan Wiles, an expert on conflicts in Asia told the news portal.

Internally, the NSCN’s operational capabilities have significantly weakened, according to reports. Major General (retired) Sushant Chauhan, an army veteran who served in Nagaland, stated, “The NSCN has definitely lost its fighting edge. Over the past 47 years (since 1977), its leaders and cadres have lived in relative luxury and have gotten used to the good things in life. They will not go back to the jungles to fight. They have become too used to easy money from extortions and drug trafficking to return to the perils of the life of insurgents.”

Perhaps most importantly, it is the desire for peace and development among the Naga people that has played a decisive role in curbing support for violent separatism.

“The fruits of nearly 50 years of peace are apparent to all Nagas who want development, progress, and jobs. No Naga wants resumption of insurgency. All Nagas have integrated completely and are proud Indian citizens. Muivah will find no support for his plans. People want economic advancement, good jobs, good roads and infrastructure, good governance etc. Nagaland is getting all this because peace prevails here. No Naga will endanger all this and support resumption of violence,” Benjamin Lotha, a retired bureaucrat, was quoted by the news outlet.

MT