The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made historic wins in the 2022 Assembly elections. While the BJP won all four states in which it had been the incumbent party in power, the AAP completely swept the Punjab polls.
Uttar Pradesh: Despite the corpses seen floating in the Ganges during the Pandemic, the BJP secured a comfortable win in Uttar Pradesh with only Samajwadi party coming close to being called an opposition. This victory also makes history by making BJP the first ruling party to return to power in 37 years in the state. There are various factors that led to BJP’s victory, among which women’s vote contributed the most.
The politics of UP is not complete without caste politics and the minority. However, this time, it was the women voters that brought about a thumping majority to BJP. The Jats were not excited about Congress, AAP or the BSP and were not even considered as players. But BJP’s unabashed Hindutva plank worked positively with the electorate. Leaving the usual caste and minority politics, BJP was able to successfully connect and reach out to its voters even to the extent of undertaking door to door outreach during the lockdown.
Another aspect of BJP’s victory was ‘women voters’, who generally worry about running their kitchen on a daily basis. The number of women voters was more than the men voters in UP where most of the women votes landed up for BJP camp. This was a result of Modi’s affection and psychological attachment with the women through various welfare schemes.
Free ration distribution, ujjwala scheme, direct beneficiary transfer for housing and toilets to women and various schemes launched for women safety acted as a game changer for the Yogi government. Apart from the amalgamation of the scheme, the deep connection that Prime Minister Modi carefully nurtured with the women voters contributed largely in their vote banks.
Meanwhile, the opposition’s popularity continued to diminish as it repeatedly failed to articulate in delivering a strong counter-argument against mishandling of Covid crisis and unemployment. Minority appeasement and the stand against community politics simply failed to penetrate and relate with rural masses.
The opposition, despite the heavy criticisms of the ruling government during the Covid crisis, failed to simply fill in the political space. In fact, the question that stayed with the general masses was: where were the opposition parties during the first wave and second wave of the pandemic? Had the Samajwadi party worked hard over the past few years before election, the result could have been different.
Moreover, Priyanka Gandhi’s half-hearted rally on women empowerment yielded no productive result because women were no longer attracted to petty women empowerment politics when election was knocking at the door. In return, the Yogi government appeased their women voters through social security and economic stability and by increasing women work force in police departments.
Moreover, Yogi’s government’s ability to project its crackdown on the mafia and extra-judicial killing as a sign of better law and order helped BJP win UP.
Manipur: Like many other North Eastern states, Manipur tends to vote for the ruling party at the center. The past five years BJP and RSS have been very active while, unlike Nagaland and Mizoram, the regional party in Manipur has almost disappeared. Moreover, the opposition failed to pick any single issue as a poll plank.
Goa: With the aid of three independents, BJP is on its way to form a popular government for the third time. The entry of AAM and TMC only benefited the BJP as the vote bank of BJP remained intact while the voters of the opposition fractured. The infrastructural spending by the Pramod Sawant government along with various local schemes had a huge impact on its vote bank. Once again, the opposition overlooked environmental and social political issues. Much of the credit for the win goes to those who defected from the Congress, adding over 60,000 votes for the BJP.
Uttarakhand: The BJP in Uttarakhand returned to power after securing 47 of the 70 assembly seats which is the first time that any party has returned to power after the formation of the state in 2000. However, Chief Minister Dhami couldn’t win his own seat despite his party’s overwhelming win.
Rallies by heavyweights such as Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister and Defense Minister pulled in the crowds. Its campaign in the name of national security, army welfare and religious tourism appeased the voters in large numbers. Meanwhile, the scathing attack on Congress regarding how Congress stands for minority appeasement stuck around.
AAP for Punjab: After years of Congress and Akali-BJP rule, Punjab, a state that had been coughing up inordinately high rates for power, and where health and education are mostly privatized, immediately warmed up to AAP’s four model: quality government education, health, power and water at cheap rates. This also comes at a time when Congress circus fully blew up in the public sphere with Captain Amarinder Singh leaving the party.
The youth and women voters were desperate to give a new party and the ‘aamaadmi’ a chance. Along with it, Kejriwal wooed women as a separate vote bank and not just as an extension of their fathers or husbands in the highly patriarchal state. Kejriwal’s ideals also resonated with the youth through the promise of rooting out corruption. The idea of “changing the system” also appealed to the youth to bring in a new regime that would give a fillip to education and employment.
And most importantly, the more than a year long farm agitation that forced the central government to repeal the three contentious farm laws determined the poll outcomes.