Census 2027 could help answer some of Nagaland’s most pressing questions: how many young people have left the state, how widespread unemployment really is, and why population growth appears to be slowing.
The census, India’s first digital census, comes after a gap of more than 15 years since the last nationwide exercise in 2011, leaving policymakers, researchers and planners reliant on increasingly outdated data.
For Dr Chubaienla Imchen, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at Fazl Ali College, and Dr Limasenla Jamir, Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology at Fazl Ali College and a field trainer for Census 2027 in Mokokchung district, the census is about far more than counting people.
“The reality of our socio-economic condition will be reflected,” Dr Jamir said.
For Dr Chubaienla Imchen, “The number that will tell us about Nagaland’s future is not how many people we have. It will be about how many of our young people are still here.”
According to Dr Imchen, census data forms the foundation of economic planning.
“It is the baseline for any development, the starting point for where and how resources should be allocated.”
From housing and education to infrastructure and welfare programs, governments depend on census data to identify needs and prioritize interventions. Accurate population figures help determine how many schools, health facilities, roads, housing units and public services are required in a given area.
Inaccurate data, however, can result in misplaced investments and distorted planning.
“Suppose there is an overcounted census. It directly affects the overall development scenario. It may result in schools being built where they are not needed or resources being allocated based on incorrect assumptions,” she explained.
Using a simple example, Dr Imchen noted that even private investment decisions depend on reliable demographic information.
“Suppose we want to bring a mall to Mokokchung. We have to know the market, household income and all these will come from census,” she said.
Yet obtaining accurate figures has not always been straightforward.
Dr Jamir believes one of the biggest challenges facing Census 2027 is the perception that census figures could influence future delimitation exercises and political representation.
According to her, conversations in some villages have linked the census to concerns over political representation.
“Some people are trying to politicize the census by suggesting that it could affect representation. Such fears may lead to manipulation, and if manipulation happens, we may not see the actual reality.”
She also pointed to another long-standing perception, that larger population figures mean greater access to development funds and government schemes.
“Most of us want to show that population has increased and that housing has increased because, in many cases, people believe higher numbers translate into more funds,” she said.
“Depending on the population, funds are allocated. At the same time, there is a factor on electoral rolls which can translate into vote banks.”
“Since the first census, we have been manipulating the data and it is regrettable that Nagaland does not have accurate data.”
She stressed that inaccurate data prevents policymakers from understanding the state’s actual social and economic conditions.
“Real problems and real causes are not reflected, and therefore policies end up being framed without reflecting social realities.”
She also pointed to what she described as a lack of awareness about the purpose of the census.
“Especially in rural areas, their sole focus is to show populations have increased. There is a lack of understanding on how important the census is. There is a lack of sensitization. The advertisements from the department are not reaching the people.”
The unemployment challenge
Employment is one area where inaccurate data can have serious consequences.
“Nagaland is second largest in terms of youth unemployment as well as educated unemployment in India,” Dr Imchen said.
She argued that official figures often fail to capture underemployment and disguised unemployment, where people are working below their qualifications or in low-productivity jobs.
“Accurate data will reveal genuine unemployment and disguised unemployment,” she said.
Without reliable figures, governments may end up addressing the wrong problem or allocating resources in the wrong place.
“If unemployment is undercounted, the state will under-invest in job creation, skilling programs and employment opportunities, leaving the real joblessness unaddressed,” she said.
“If it is overcounted, you risk pouring resources into a crisis which is smaller than it is reported and diverting funds needed elsewhere.”
The migration question
For Dr Imchen, however, the most important number in Census 2027 may be migration.
According to her, the movement of young people out of the state affects labour-force participation, economic productivity and the state’s future development trajectory. It also influences how dependency ratios are understood and how resources are allocated.
“People who are jobless at home and are not counted as unemployed, it hides the real unemployment,” she said. She said outward migration can mask the true scale of unemployment within the state
She argued that understanding who is leaving, who remains and who participates in the labour force is essential for understanding Nagaland’s future.
“Only after reflecting all those realities will we be able to know how to use our limited resources.”
Migration also has implications for urban planning.
“Even for municipality and urban planning, a large chunk of migration is taking place to urban areas. So, we need more housing facilities, water supply, sanitation or schools. Census is important for all these.”
More than population growth
For Dr Jamir, one of the most important contributions of Census 2027 may be its ability to shed light on broader demographic changes taking place across the state.
“The growth rate is something we should pay attention to,” she said. “In villages, people are saying that deaths are increasing while births are not keeping pace.”
She raised a series of questions that many communities are already asking.
“Why is the population declining? Why are new births not taking place? Why are people not getting married? Why are people giving birth to fewer children?”
Such questions, she said, cannot be answered through assumptions alone.
“These social realities exist and everyone knows them. But to solve them, we need data.”
“Many developments are coming our way but we cannot say we are a developing state. Why? All these questions, we cannot answer them because we need to do research and study, and those studies should be based on data. But the data are not reliable,” she added.
A digital census, old challenges
Census 2027 will also be India’s first digital census.
The use of digital technology is expected to reduce duplication and minimize inclusion and exclusion errors.
However, Dr Imchen believes challenges remain.
“There will be a digital divide,” she said.
Connectivity gaps, particularly in remote areas, could complicate digital enumeration.
“From the mainland to our North East region, in terms of connectivity, we are far lacking in infrastructure.”
“In some villages there are no networks.”
She also pointed to challenges involving older persons, remote villagers and those with limited digital literacy.
“There may also be fraud challenges,” she added.
Beyond guesswork
Despite the challenges, both academics see Census 2027 as crucial.
“Census itself will not create jobs,” Dr Imchen said. “But it is like a precondition for any unemployment solution.”
For any economy to sustain itself, she argued, policymakers need an accurate understanding of employment, migration and demographic trends.
Dr Jamir expressed a similar view.
“Real problems and real causes are not reflected, and therefore policies end up being framed without reflecting social realities.”
For a state still trying to understand the scale of migration, unemployment and demographic change, Census 2027 may be about more than counting people. It may determine whether future policies are based on assumptions or reality.