China’s population continued to decline in 2025, according to newly released government data as per news reports. The total population fell by 3 million from the previous year, reaching 1.404 billion. This marks the fourth consecutive year of population decline, with births dropping sharply by 1.62 million, or 17 percent, to 7.92 million. The birth rate hit a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people, signaling growing demographic pressure on the country. Despite recent policy changes raising the child limit from one to three and offering cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (about $500) per child, the fertility rate remains around 1, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
China’s population challenges reflect a global trend. Worldwide fertility rates have fallen from 4.8 in 1950 to 2.2 today. Countries such as Japan and South Korea face particularly low fertility rates of 1.2 and 0.75, respectively. India, which recently surpassed China as the most populous country, has seen its fertility rate fall from 6 in the mid-20th century to about 2 now.
This demographic shift is more than numbers; it signals profound social and economic consequences. A smaller youth population means fewer workers and consumers, which threatens economic growth and innovation. The increasing elderly population will put pressure on healthcare, pensions, and public services, while the shrinking workforce reduces tax revenues necessary to fund these services. This demographic imbalance could slow development and create social challenges.
While “population collapse” may be dismissed as alarmism, there is evidence of decline in rural Nagaland. Almost all villages, except some near urban centres, are experiencing population loss. In Mokokchung, some villages have taken independent pronatalism initiatives, with churches, village councils, and peer groups offering financial aid to parents with four or more children. These efforts are encouraging but insufficient. Pockets of action will not bring broad change. A statewide population policy is needed. It may contradict some union government “family planning” policies but Nagaland has Article 371(A), which could allow for tailored approaches. Addressing these challenges now is vital for a stable economic and social future.
