Although no political party in Nagaland has officially kick-started their election campaign, there are telltale signs that all of them are gearing up for the next election to the Nagaland Legislative Assembly. The tenure of the current assembly ends February 27 and the 2023 Nagaland Legislative Assembly election is scheduled to be held by March to elect all 60 members of the Nagaland Legislative Assembly, although the Election Commission of India is yet to declare the schedule. The last election was held on 27 February 2018 in 59 out of 60 constituencies of the Legislative Assembly of Nagaland. The scheduled election in Northern Angami II constituency did not take place as only incumbent MLA Neiphiu Rio was declared elected unopposed. The counting of votes took place on 3 March 2018.
There are a lot of political developments happening in Nagaland with the “Naga political solution” and the demand for Frontier Nagaland statehood by Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization (ENPO) being the most visible. All of these issues will be put on the backburner once the Election Commission of India (ECI) declares the election schedule. Although it is not wrong to expect the unexpected in politics, it would be preposterous to expect that the ECI is not declaring the election schedule because of the Naga political problem or the Frontier Nagaland statehood demand.
The year 2023 is to witness a series of assembly polls, being seen as semifinals to Lok Sabha elections slated to be held in the summer of 2024. Key states of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana would go for polls this year, besides States from the North-East. In the NE, Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya will be the first to have assembly polls, most likely in February-March. The terms of their respective legislative assemblies end on different dates in February-March. According to reports in the national media, sources in the Election Commission had indicated in December that the elections in the three states (Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya) will be held together, followed by polls in Karnataka later. It can, therefore, be clearly observed that the ECI will most certainly announce the election schedule of not just Nagaland state but all of the poll-bound states sooner than later. As frequently declared by the state’s political leaders, including the Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio himself, the state will have to go to the polls if the ECI announces the election schedule – which is bound to happen any day now. The only probable reason why assembly election would not be held in Nagaland is if the centre inks a “final agreement” to the Naga political issue with the Naga negotiating parties before the ECI announces the election schedule. That, however, seems to be too long a shot. Moreover, the ruling BJP is obviously more interested in using the assembly elections in 2023 as a springboard for its 2024 Lok Sabha elections and solving the Naga political issue does not seem to figure in the greater scheme of things. At least that’s how things appear.
Meanwhile, what we must also remember is that the Supreme Court has already issued directions to the Nagaland State Election Commission to complete the Urban Local Bodies (ULB) elections and declare results for the same by the end of January 2023. Like it or not, it seems we are in all likelihood going to face the “necessary evil” of elections very soon.