The World Meteorological Organization has predicted that the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature threshold would be broken, at least temporarily, during the next five years. This was said during a news analysis on Wednesday. According to WMO, there is a 66% likelihood that global temperatures would exceed the pre-industrial normal by 1.5 degrees Celsius or more in at least one of the years 2023-2027.
Furthermore, it was nearly certain — a 98% chance — that one of these years will surpass 2016 as the warmest year on record. Right now, 2016 is the warmest year on record, with an annual mean temperature 1.28 degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times (average of 1850-1900).
According to Indian Express, a new study released on Wednesday said the strong spell of heat wave experienced in India and some neighboring countries in April could most likely be attributed to climate change.
WMO also predicted that annual mean temperatures would be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels during the following five years. And, unless rising trends are reversed rapidly, the 1.5 degree Celsius breach might become permanent very soon.
WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas during a news conference stated that during the next five years, they estimate the global average temperature to hit 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times on a temporary basis.
“There is so much increase in carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in the atmosphere… that in the next 15-20 years, the 1.5 degrees Celsius rise will be a permanent feature from which there will be no return to the good old days of the previous century,” he said.
1.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise is considered an important threshold. The goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to prevent a 2 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures from pre-industrial times, while striving to contain it below 1.5 degrees Celsius. But most analysts now agree that the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold was getting out of reach.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a breach of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold was most likely unavoidable, and the best case scenario for the globe could only be a quick decarbonisation to bring it back under that threshold after a few years.
