Fragmentation in key villages, coupled with narrow past margins, adds uncertainty to the upcoming by-election
With the by-election to the 28 Koridang Assembly Constituency approaching, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is yet to announce its candidate, even as local electoral dynamics and internal considerations appear to be complicating the decision.
The seat, held by late veteran legislator Imkong L Imchen for over two decades, is expected to go to the BJP under the pre-poll alliance arrangement with the NPF. However, despite the political significance of the constituency, no official candidate has been declared so far.
At the ground level, party workers and local observers point to the constituency’s village-based vote bank system as a key factor influencing both the delay and the eventual outcome.
Mangmetong, Longkhum and Chungtia villages constitute some of the largest vote banks in the constituency, followed by Khensa, Yimyu ward and Alichen Compound, while Aliba, Kinunger and Mekuli are considered smaller clusters.
Electoral data further highlights the scale of these vote banks, with Chungtia village, across its polling stations, accounting for around 5,183 voters and Mangmetong close behind at approximately 5,002. Longkhum and Alichen each have over 3,000 voters, while Khensa accounts for more than 2,300. In comparison, Yimyu has around 1,574 voters, while Aliba, Kinunger and Mekuli have significantly smaller electorates.
In the 2023 Assembly election, late Imchen of the BJP won with 8,340 votes, defeating Maj Toshikaba (Retd) of the NPF by a margin of just 410 votes. Observers say such a narrow margin highlights how even small shifts or divisions within key vote-bank villages could significantly alter the outcome in the upcoming by-poll.
The presence of more than one aspirant from the same village has raised concerns over fragmentation of votes, especially in a constituency where electoral outcomes are often shaped by consolidated village support.
“Unity within the village is crucial. If votes are divided, it benefits candidates from other areas,” a local observer said.
According to political commentators, multiple aspirants have emerged from some of the larger villages, particularly Mangmetong and Chungtia. From Mangmetong, names such as Daochier I Imchen and Imchatoba Imchen are being discussed, while in Chungtia, figures including Maj (Retd.) Toshikaba, Imtiwapang and Chalukumba are also seen as potential contenders.
Observers note that the emergence of multiple aspirants from the same villages could divide traditional vote banks and complicate the electoral arithmetic.
“Unless these villages consolidate behind a single candidate, the chances of winning become uncertain,” a party functionary said.
In contrast, a candidate such as Apenjang from Longkhum is seen by some observers as being in a potentially advantageous position if divisions persist in other major villages.
Political observers indicate that selecting a “winnable candidate” has become a critical factor for the BJP, which previously held the seat, particularly in an election year, and this may be contributing to the delay in the announcement.
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At the same time, some party workers claimed that certain individuals who were reportedly favoured were reluctant to contest, while others who expressed interest were seen as having limited vote bank support.
Observers also note that unless dominant villages are able to arrive at a consensus or reduce the number of contenders, the contest may become “unpredictable.”
The situation adds pressure on the Bharatiya Janata Party to field a candidate who can steer through these local dynamics in a seat that carries both political and symbolic significance.
With no political party or Independent candidates making any official declaration yet, the coming days are expected to be crucial as parties and aspirants alike weigh their prospects in a constituency where numbers alone may not decide the outcome, unity might.
