The next few months will prove to be critical for Nagaland as a number of sociopolitical issues will, in all likelihood, crop up to take its toll on the common people. The issues or problems may not be new ones but they will all peak concurrently or near about each other. Some of the issues that are likely to rear their heads in the next few months would, among others, include the Nagaland Liquor Total Prohibition (NLTP) Act, 1989; the 33% Reservation for Women in Urban Local Bodies; the elusive solution to the Indo-Naga political problem; the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958; and, finally, the Nagaland Legislative Assembly election, 2023.
While all of the above issues are not new to Naga society, it is noteworthy to observe that all of them are showing early signs to peak – all at the same time. If that so happens, Naga society will be faced with a crisis like it has never experienced in the recent past. To add more woes to the problem, most of the major sociopolitical issues that are about to unravel in the near future are all inter-related. Naga society must, therefore, prepare to face the crisis right away. If the homegrown sociopolitical issues are not enough to break the back of Naga society, there are traces of undercurrent resentment brewing in neighboring Assam, thanks to Amit Shah’s stance of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019. Any major crisis in Assam would hit Nagaland hard in the socioeconomic front.
The reported move by the state government to “review” the NLTP Act will in all probability invite prohibitionists to the streets. The Church and other opponents to lifting the prohibition will not go down without a fight. March 19 is the date that the Nagaland Legislative Assembly will be having its session and it is speculated that a bill to review the Act might be tabled then.
The Supreme Court’s edict on February 22 regarding the 33% reservation for women in ULBs in Nagaland is certainly going to have far reaching ramifications. There were widespread protests by tribal groups in the state when local elections with quotas for women were notified in February 2017. Similar events are likely to recur.
Demands for repealing of AFSPA after the Oting incident have taken a pause but the GoI is not likely to oblige here. The committee constituted by the Central Government to “submit suitable recommendations” on the demand for repealing of AFSPA will, in all certainty, delay and the matter will be left to face its slow natural demise. How the Naga people will react is yet to be seen.
The Naga people are made to believe that the ongoing talks between the GoI and the various Naga groups will be resolved sooner than later. That has been going on for 25 years now. What if the talks fail? What if the talks do arrive at a conclusion but not in a way the Naga people deserved?
And then the elections will happen early next year. It appears that the universe is conspiring against the Naga people. If all of the issues pointed above were to bombard the Nagas at about the same time, can Naga society manage the resultant crisis that would entail?