It is known to everyone that the Indian National Congress party in Nagaland does not even have a single MLA in the last two legislative assemblies of the state. The Congress party did win 8 seats in the 2013 assembly elections in Nagaland, securing 25% of the total votes cast that election. In contrast, the BJP won only one seat that year securing a mere 1.8% of the total votes. The Naga People’s Front was hands down the winner with 38 seats securing 47% of the total votes. The eight Congress MLAs jumped ship and joined the NPF, paving the way for the first opposition-less government in Nagaland. Ten years later, today, the NPF is struggling and the Congress does not have a single MLA while the BJP has grown exponentially. And of course we have the NDPP. That is how unpredictable electoral politics is. So much can change in just 10 years.
The BJP has been in power at the centre since 2014. If the ‘united opposition’ were to overthrow the BJP government in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it is believed that the BJP here in Nagaland would be drastically affected. Congress is seen as the natural leader of the opposition parties and therefore it is obvious that the BJP is targeting the Congress in Nagaland even though the party does not have a single MLA. The BJP is apparently not bothered by the existence of NPF and the other political parties in Nagaland, including the NPP which is the only national political party from the Northeast. On March 2 when the votes are counted, it will be interesting to see if any Congress candidate would emerge victorious because that would have the potential to impact the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as far as Nagaland is concerned. We have seen a number of star campaigners from the centre campaigning in Nagaland in the run up to the 14th Nagaland Legislative Assembly elections. None of the star campaigners wasted time attacking the other parties except the Congress. This proves that the BJP sees the Congress as the only threat to its existence in the state. Meanwhile, the Congress has also had a good number of its leaders visit Nagaland this time. This is perhaps the first time in Nagaland that the Congress and the BJP have made Nagaland their battleground.
Now, both the BJP and the NDPP have been claiming that they will register a thumping victory and no other political party has been able to counter their claim despite some of them fancying the prospect of forming a post-poll alliance. In Nagaland, no MLA wants to sit in the opposition bench and, therefore, they are ever ready to jump ship to the ruling dispensation – judging by history – at the slightest opportunity. The kind of electoral politics played in Nagaland this time around is most interesting. Congress party also seems to be the only party that would be willing to sit in the opposition bench or not.
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