With problems of plenty, you tend to lose touch with ground realities. The Bharatiya Janata Party in Nagaland seems to be facing the problem of plenty of late. The Nagaland state unit of the BJP have recently announced that the party’s membership has seen an increase from 41,000 members to 3,41,000 and counting since the 2018 election. And it is not just the members that have increased. Many leaders from different parties have also joined the BJP since 2018, including elected leaders. Anything can happen in politics but with time running out, it is unlikely that the NDPP-BJP seat sharing deal of 40:20 would change. Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio has said on record that there will be no change in the seat sharing formula and that his party would announce the list of candidates before the month ends. This leaves the Nagaland BJP with a problem of plenty as the seat sharing deal with NDPP is seen as leaving the party with too few tickets to go around with. This has set off protests in the BJP camp which is no surprise at all. In Nagaland, everybody wants to run the roost and no politician wants to sit in the opposition bench. Maybe it is not about political ideology, principles or policies – just plain insatiable appetite for power and money. If the Congress, for example, were to storm back to power in Delhi, every one of them ‘politicians’ would be flocking to the party in Nagaland. Cheap!
With so many aspirants but too few tickets to accommodate them all, the ‘karyakartas’ want the formula with ally NDPP changed from 20:40 to 30:30 — this seems to be the BJP’s problem ahead of the Assembly elections in Nagaland on February 27. With leaders from different parties joining the party, the BJP in the state is bubbling over with party workers and intending candidates. They are now even openly protesting against the party’s 40:20 seat sharing formula with the NDPP.
Ahead of the assembly elections in 2018, the BJP struck the 40:20 seat sharing deal with NDPP. The NDPP went on to win 17 of the 40 seats it contested, and the BJP got 12 out of its 20 seats. In 2022, the two parties had announced that the formula would continue in the 2023 polls too – a decision that was reiterated by their leaders earlier this month. It appears the central BJP leadership is prudent enough to understand the ground realities better than their ‘karyakartas’ in the state.
With the date for filing the nominations drawing closer, the members of the expanded BJP ranks in the state are protesting against the 40:20 formula, claiming that it does not fulfill the aspirations of party workers and those who have joined it in recent times. However, chances are very slim for the new entrants and aspirants because their interest cannot be above that of the party. And it is very unlikely that the BJP would tarnish its image as a disciplined and ideologically driven political party by pleasing some disgruntled members in a small state like Nagaland.
Also, the central BJP leadership just might have better ideas up their sleeves. Or, it possibly could be that the BJP would be rendered irrelevant without the NDPP in Nagaland. Either way, it appears the BJP is in a tight situation and the best strategy at the moment would be to come back to power in the current seat sharing formula.
