REFUGEE CONUNDRUM IN INDIA’S PERIPHERY: BINIT PATNAIK

The recent surrender of hundreds of soldiers of the Myanmar’s junta to the armed insurgent groups has not only posed the stiffest challenge to the ruling regime. It even spilled over into its neighbourhood.

Ever since it seized power through a coup in early 2021, the rebel groups have been attempting to wrest control in multiple provinces of Myanmar.

The junta has ruled over the country with an iron fist since more than five decades, save for a brief stint of democracy. Interestingly though, the military junta faced an unprecedented offensive by the rebel groups within a year of its latest takeover from a democratically elected government. In any case, even prior to the coup, the junta had the right to appoint 25% of all parliament members, thus retaining substantial influence in the country’s politics.

The Aung San Suu Kyi-led government had won the 2020 elections in a landslide victory and its dismissal had expectedly triggered a massive wave of demonstrations and descended the country into a civil war-like situation. The pro-democracy groups, fighting under the umbrella name of National Defence Forces (NDF), have since been embroiled in a power struggle to dismantle the Tatmadaw. They have been duly supported by the National Unity Government (NUG), which is a shadow regime run from exile.

The junta’s notoriety and massive human rights abuses, have not only dented their credibility in the eyes of civilians, but also provoked many to pick up arms, so as to wage an armed struggle in order to restore democracy in the battered nation. The swathes of sanctions on the junta and a rude shock to the economy, have also led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in the region.

According to United Nations’ estimates, more than 2 million people have been displaced since the beginning of the crisis, while a majority of them are untraceable at present. As the conflict continues to grip the entire nation, more large-scale displacement is expected from the region.

The fall of the Burmese military from grace raises serious questions about the future of the country’s administrative structure, due to an impending power void in the aftermath of the current power struggle.

The lack of homogeneity among the different rebel groups fighting the junta in the various provinces of the country is also a major concern for the country’s stability in the coming years.

One cannot rule out the possibility of these heavily armed insurgent groups indulging in further fratricide among themselves to cling on to power. Moreover, the recent seizure of power in the northern Shan state by the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” -one of them being an ethnic Chinese group with links to the Chinese government- is also reflective of the loss of sovereignty of the people of Myanmar in governing their own fate.

Moreover, the various so-called pro-democracy groups that have mushroomed all over the country, receive external logistical support from multiple countries, which may or may not be on the same side in this conflict. This further aggravates the possibility of an infighting among the groups, who may wage war on one another to achieve different ends in the future.

Bearing the brunt of such a catastrophe are the neighbouring countries, including that of India. The fact that India has a Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar, that allows people coming from Myanmar to enter 16 km into Indian territory without a visa, has hastened the influx of refugees into the bordering states of India, including Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland.

According to the data released by Mizoram government, there has been an influx of over 40,000 refugees from the neighbouring Chin state of Myanmar, into Mizoram alone. Different border states of India have reacted differently to the mass displacement of people into their territories.

While Mizoram has tried its best to make their ethnic brethren feel at home, the Manipur government alleges them for peddling illegal arms and drugs into the state, that has compromised the law and order in the state currently. In fact, the Manipur government has even gone on to request the Central government to conduct the National Register for Citizens (NRC) exercise in the state to flush out the “illegal immigrants” from within its borders.

The recent announcement made by the Union Home Minister Amit Shah during a public meeting in Guwahati, Assam that the Centre may reconsider the FMR and fence the 1,643 Km long border it shares with Myanmar, in the wake of the dwindling security in the region. It has re-ignited the debate about the porosity of India’s borders.

The Nagaland and Mizoram government, along with several influential Civil Society Organizations in the two states have opposed the Centre’s move saying it would curtail the rights of communities sharing ethnic ties, on either side of the administrative border. The influential Naga Students’ Federation, has stated that it was crucial for India to acknowledge the historical fact that the territories between the Chindwin River in Myanmar and the Saramati mountain in Nagaland belonged to the Nagas. Ironically, the nature of the British-administered boundary demarcation was so cruel that it run right through the house of Longwa King in Mon district of Nagaland.

The Centre must therefore, welcome suggestions from various stakeholders involved and hold extensive negotiations, before deciding on the approach to secure its borders with Myanmar. The extant “Act East” and “Neighbourhood First” policies, pursued by India requires considerable respect to the rich heritage and history of the relevant stakeholders in the region.

*Mr. Binit Patnaik is a freelance writer dealing with Indian Political System and International Affairs.