Today, the Arabian Sea has become a strategic theater of power projection. The nuclear-powered USS Abraham Lincoln, armed with Tomahawk guided cruise missiles, along with destroyers such as the USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., and Virginia-class (SSN-774) nuclear-powered submarines, have steamed into U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) areas of concern. Supported by F/A-18 Super Hornets and F-35C Lightning II fighter jets positioned on the carrier’s deck, these assets are now within easy reach of Iranian targets. This redeployment, diverted from Indo-Pacific duties in the South China Sea, signals unmistakable intent toward deterrence—or escalation if necessary—as President Trump acknowledged, “We have a lot of ships going that direction.”
From Washington, the message is blunt. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking alongside President Donald Trump at a recent Cabinet meeting, declared that the military is “prepared to deliver whatever this president expects.” Iran “should not pursue nuclear capabilities,” he warned, leaving “all options,” including military force, firmly on the table. Trump has intensified the pressure, posting about a “massive armada” capable of strikes “far worse” than previous operations, while urging Tehran to negotiate a “fair and equitable deal” with “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.”
Tehran has responded without flinching. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, during talks in Istanbul, stated flatly that ballistic missiles and defensive capabilities “will never be subject to negotiation.” He added that no direct meetings with U.S. officials are planned unless threats cease. Iran insists it remains ready for diplomacy on equal terms—but also for warfare. Tehran has raised its defense readiness to 200 percent for the current fiscal year, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) expanding its capacity to retaliate decisively against U.S. bases, ships, or leadership targets.
The financial disparity further shapes this evolving standoff. The U.S. defense budget stands at roughly $850 billion annually, with proposals pushing it toward $1.5 trillion in coming years, funding continuous modernization of aircraft carriers, stealth aircraft, precision munitions, and global logistics. In contrast, Iran allocates approximately $15–25 billion annually, rising to just over $40 billion for 2025–26, often closer to the lower end due to sanctions. This imbalance pushes Tehran toward cost-effective asymmetric strategies: indigenously produced ballistic missiles, drone swarms, proxy networks, and hardened underground facilities. Iran fields no blue-water navy to rival the U.S. Navy; instead, it bets on denial strategies—closing straits, targeting tankers, and overwhelming defenses through sheer volume.
For India, this powder-keg escalation demands extreme caution. Chabahar Port remains a cornerstone of India’s strategic autonomy, with over $500 million invested to bypass Pakistan’s naval blockade, secure access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, and counter Gwadar. Yet operations were halted under renewed U.S. secondary-sanctions threats. This fragile and temporary exemption could vanish with a single signature. Trump’s tariff warnings of 25 percent on countries trading with Iran could hammer Indian export sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services, potentially endangering millions of jobs.
New Delhi’s response? Deliberate- almost surgical-silence.
India has issued no heated statements condemning the U.S. fleet movement through the Indian Ocean Region, nor has it aligned openly with Tehran. Instead, New Delhi has opted for quiet diplomacy. Envoys are dispatched to Tehran for closed-door talks. In international forums, India votes for sovereignty and dialogue over one-sided condemnation. Official statements employ measured language—expressing “deep concern,” urging “maximum restraint,” and stressing the importance of Gulf stability for global energy security.
India courts everyone because no single partner can deliver everything it needs. Russia supplies discounted oil and legacy defense systems despite Western sanctions. Israel provides drones, cyber capabilities, and real-time intelligence on shared threats. The Gulf offers energy security, employment for millions of Indian workers, and sovereign investment. The United States offers the world’s largest consumer market, cutting-edge technology, and a security umbrella over the Indo-Pacific. Iran provides geographic leverage and a hedge against over-dependence.
In this chess game, silence is a move-not a forfeit.
If India remains too quiet for too long, Tehran may conclude New Delhi has tilted irreversibly westward. Too much deference, and Washington may assume India can be taken for granted. Should limited strikes spiral into tanker wars—blocking oil chokepoints and pushing prices beyond $150 per barrel—India would feel the impact acutely: inflation spikes, pressure on the rupee, supply-chain shocks, and potential risks to the eight-million-strong Indian diaspora in the Gulf.
The smart play remains subtlety over surrender.
India quietly urges de-escalation through every available back channel—supporting regional mediators, insisting on dialogue rather than deadlines, and offering diplomatic off-ramps. Its strategy is to protect Chabahar through persistent, low-key negotiation rather than public confrontation, while privately reminding Washington that India’s silence reflects partnership, not vassalage. Simultaneously, it signals to Tehran that the relationship endures, even if spoken in whispers.
In the end, this storm may yet pass. Threats are often currency, not commitment. But a deeper truth will linger long after headlines fade: American power, once absolute, now operates under strain and second thoughts. India, rising amid this uncertainty, walks the tightrope with calm eyes and steady feet.
Silence is not absence. It is presence- patient, deliberate, and ruthlessly focused on what comes next.
(Santhoshraja V, Research Scholar, Centre for South East Asian Studies, Nagaland Central University, specialised in the area of UDA, Indo-Pacific Region and South China Sea).
