The Nitish Kumar connection

The latest and very interesting political development in Bihar is proof that anything can happen in politics and that there are no permanent friends, and no permanent enemies, in politics – only permanent interests. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s shock decision to snap ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party and realign forces with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and other Opposition parties including the Congress, marks yet another turnaround for the seasoned politician. He had earlier joined the BJP led NDA alliance in 2000, and after three terms as chief minister of Bihar, he dumped the BJP and joined hands with arch-rival Lalu Prasad’s RJD and the Congress to come back to power in 2015 as chief minister once again. Again, in 2017, he rejoined the NDA. In 2020, the NDA formed the government but, in the latest development, he has once again made the turnaround and has snapped ties with the BJP and is likely to continue as the chief minister with the support of the Opposition parties. Nitish Kumar is no stranger to defections and switching sides. Ironically, or rather interestingly, he is known as the ‘sushasan’ (good governance) man of Bihar. Whatever is happening in Bihar state politics has no direct bearing on Nagaland state politics but, with the Nagaland assembly elections just months away, there are some cues to take from it.

The Nagaland State unit of Janata Dal (U), of which the Bihar chief minister is the leader, has been making some political maneuvering lately and quite predictably so. Headquartered in Wokha, the JD(U) in Nagaland cannot be written off as far as the next state assembly election is in concern. In fact, JD(U) won a seat in the last assembly election from 36 Satakha assembly constituency although he switched to NDPP. The recent announcement of seat-sharing deal between NDPP and BJP in Nagaland remains to be executed and anything can happen during the next few months. There is word doing the rounds that NDPP is likely to merge with BJP after the assembly elections although it is unlikely. But anything can happen in politics. It is amply clear that the seat-sharing deal between NDPP and BJP exists simply because it serves both parties right and equally. When this equilibrium is disturbed and the deal becomes more advantageous for one or the other, a Nitish Kumar move cannot be ruled out. Snapping ties with an ally is not unheard of in politics.

Talking about the 40-20 seat-sharing deal between NDPP and BJP, it is apparently clear that there will be disgruntled aspiring candidates seeking party tickets in both camps. In such a scenario, the JD(U) is likely to become the natural go-to party for the aspirants who are denied NDPP/BJP party tickets. With a man like Nitish Kumar at the helm, we never know if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat in Nagaland.