Amidst announcement to fence India-Myanmar border, India to host seminar with anti-junta rebel groups

As India announces plans to spend Rs 31,000 crore to fence a 1,643 km stretch of the India-Myanmar border, it has also invited political and military opponents of Myanmar’s ruling junta to attend a seminar in New Delhi, according to a report by Reuters.

Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war since its military ousted the civilian government in a coup in February 2021, creating instability along India’s 1,650-km border with Myanmar. This has raised concerns about security risks to key Indian infrastructure projects in Myanmar, such as the $400-million Kaladan port and highway project and other road projects linking India’s northeastern states with Thailand.

Sources close to the matter told Reuters that the Indian government has invited members of Myanmar’s parallel National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic minority rebel groups from Chin, Rakhine, and Kachin states, which share borders with India, to a seminar scheduled for mid-November. The event will be hosted by the government-funded Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), whose council includes India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar.

The seminar, expected to focus on “Constitutionalism and Federalism,” marks a significant shift in India’s approach to the Myanmar crisis. According to Sui Khar, vice chairman of the Chin National Front, “This will be the first time, I think, formally, that India will engage with the non-state actors. This is a good, positive approach.” He confirmed that the group would send representatives to the event.

It remains unclear whether the Myanmar military government will be invited to the seminar. Both the Indian government and the ICWA have yet to comment on the matter.

Other armed groups invited to the event include the Arakan Army, which controls territories in Rakhine bordering Bangladesh, and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), one of Myanmar’s most powerful rebel groups.

India has maintained diplomatic ties with Myanmar’s military junta, despite the regime’s international condemnation and sanctions from Western powers. However, India has avoided openly criticizing the junta, likely to prevent pushing the regime closer to China.

The move to invite junta opponents comes after Foreign Minister Jaishankar expressed concerns in June about the security risks posed to India’s projects in Myanmar. He stated that India was “open to engaging all stakeholders in addressing this situation,” during a conversation with his Myanmar counterpart.

In June, Foreign Minister Jaishankar voiced concern about border instability and the security risks to India’s projects in Myanmar. India was “open to engaging all stakeholders in addressing this situation,” he told his Myanmar counterpart.

India is involved in developing the $400-million Kaladan port and highway project in Myanmar’s west, as well as providing about $250 million for another road project to link its landlocked northeastern states with Thailand, via Myanmar.

The seminar plan comes amid a peace effort by the ASEAN grouping of Southeast Asian nations that has made scant progress since its unveiling in April 2021, as some ASEAN nations have been vexed by the junta’s refusal of talks.

The November meeting would represent New Delhi’s most serious effort to approach Myanmar’s “pro-democracy side” since the 2021 coup, said Angshuman Choudhury, a Singapore-based researcher who closely tracks India-Myanmar affairs.

“We also need to see … whether it is meant to achieve specific foreign policy outcomes or simply relay a signal to the Myanmar military to step back,” he said.

“India remains concerned about the security and stability of its borders.”

An analysis on the development
Following the news, in an editorialby the Imphal Times, experts highlight that India has adhered to a policy of non-interference while cooperating with the junta on security matters. However, inviting ethnic rebel groups, including representatives from Chin, Rakhine, and Kachin states, suggests New Delhi may be reconsidering its approach.

The editorial notes that Myanmar’s strategic importance to India cannot be overstated. Serving as a gateway to Southeast Asia, Myanmar plays a crucial role in India’s Act East policy, and ongoing economic investments underscore the depth of bilateral ties. India’s reliance on military cooperation with Myanmar has been essential in combating insurgencies in its northeastern states, particularly in Manipur, which has been grappling with rising ethnic tensions.

The decision to engage with Myanmar’s ethnic rebel groups, viewed by the junta as terrorists, risks straining India’s long-standing policy of neutrality. Such a shift could jeopardize security cooperation, vital for managing India’s volatile northeastern border, where cross-border insurgency threats persist.

Moreover, the potential engagement raises concerns about India’s broader economic and strategic interests in the region. The Imphal Times editorial warns against assuming that improved relations with groups like the Arakan Army will revitalize key projects such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project. With Myanmar increasingly leaning on China for support, any perceived Indian interference could push Myanmar closer to Beijing, diminishing India’s strategic leverage.

The ongoing crisis in Manipur exacerbates these diplomatic challenges. With escalating violence between the Kuki and Meitei communities and the infiltration of militants from Myanmar’s Chin State, the editorial notes that the stability of Manipur is at stake.

MT