Indus Waters Dispute: Pakistan warns India of nuclear consequences?

Pakistan’s Railways Minister Hanif Abbasi has warned India to prepare for war if it attempts to stop the flow of Indus River water, Hindustan Times reported, citing a video that has gone viral on social media. The video, however, has yet to be independently verified.

“If they (India) stop water, they should be ready for war. Ghori, Shaheen and Ghaznavi are not for display. We have kept them for India. We have not kept 130 atomic weapons for a showpiece. You don’t where they are located in Pakistan,” Abbasi is quoted as saying.

The minister’s remarks come days after Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari made a similar statement in response to India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty with Islamabad. Speaking at a rally in Sukkur, Sindh province, Zardari was quoted by The News as saying: “The Indus is ours and will remain ours—either our water will flow through it, or their blood.”

Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following the terrorist attack at Baisaran meadow in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, where at least 26 people, mostly tourists, were killed. It was the deadliest such incident in India since the 2019 Pulwama attack.

Following the Pahalgam attack, India downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan, expelled Pakistani military attachés, suspended the over six-decade-old Indus Waters Treaty, and shut down the Attari land-transit post.
In response, Pakistan threatened to suspend the Simla Agreement and other bilateral accords with India. Islamabad also closed its airspace to Indian carriers, suspended trade, and warned that any move to divert waters allocated under the Indus Waters Treaty would be treated as an act of war.

The situation continues to be tense, with both countries issuing stark warnings and the international community closely monitoring the escalating rhetoric.

Nuclear arsenals in focus

Abbasi’s remarks about nuclear warheads prompt a closer look at the nuclear capabilities of India and Pakistan. According to the latest Status of World Nuclear Forces report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), published in March 2025, India now possesses an estimated 180 nuclear warheads, overtaking Pakistan’s 170. This marks the first time in over two decades that India has edged ahead in nuclear stockpile size, signalling a quiet but significant shift in South Asia’s security dynamics, according to Wion.

While the exact number of warheads remains uncertain due to the secrecy surrounding them, the FAS report notes that India’s nuclear weapons are not yet deployed and are held in reserve.

According to a FAS, as of early 2025, nine countries collectively possess an estimated 12,331 nuclear warheads.

The report, authored by Hans M Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight, and Kate Kohn, reveals that the United States and Russia together account for approximately 88% of the world’s total nuclear inventory and 84% of the military stockpile available for military use.

While global totals have declined from a Cold War peak of 70,300 warheads in 1986, the pace of reduction has slowed considerably in recent years.

The authors noted a concerning trend: although the overall number of nuclear weapons is decreasing, the number of warheads assigned to active military forces is once again rising. Approximately 9,604 warheads are currently held in military stockpiles, with 3,904 deployed with operational forces. Among those, around 2,100 US, Russian, British, and French warheads are on high alert, ready for rapid deployment.

Countries such as China, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom — and possibly Russia — are reported to be increasing their stockpiles, while France and Israel maintain relatively stable numbers. The United States continues to reduce its arsenal slowly.

The report also highlighted growing secrecy around nuclear stockpiles. While the United States had previously disclosed total stockpile numbers between 2010 and 2018, recent years have seen reversals in transparency. Both the US and Russia ceased publicly exchanging data on deployed strategic warheads and launchers in 2023, following changes in the New START Treaty arrangements. Similarly, the United Kingdom announced in 2021 that it would no longer disclose figures for its operational stockpile.

Despite these challenges, the authors compiled best estimates using public data, historical records, and leaked information. However, estimates for countries like Israel — described as the most opaque — remain highly uncertain.

According to the report, instead of moving toward disarmament, nuclear-armed states are actively modernizing their arsenals, adding new weapon types, and integrating nuclear forces deeper into their national strategies. This continued expansion, the authors argue, runs contrary to the goals of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of nuclear weapons.

MT