The bye-election in the 43 Tapi Assembly Constituency has the potential to be a shakeup in Nagaland’s current political landscape. The en masse resignation of the Naga People’s Front (NPF) in the Tapi AC on 14 October was a shocking blow to the oldest regional party in the state. However, what came in as a surprise was the resigned NPF members joining the Congress party en bloc. This move has set the stage for a showdown between the Congress and the ruling NDPP in the upcoming bye-election.
In the last assembly elections, the NDPP candidate Noke Wangnao registered a narrow margin of victory over Wanglem Konyak, now the Congress candidate for the bye-election. Wangnao lost by just 82 votes. Geihwang Konyak of the JD(U) also garnered 2770 votes while A Epha of the NPP won 150 in the quadrangular contest.
Looking at the way elections are held in Nagaland, one is tempted to predict that any bye-election is more or less a walkover win for the ruling dispensation. However, the Tapi bye-election is beginning to give mixed signals. Judging by the votes won in the last election, it is the JD(U) voters who may decide the outcome of the ensuing bye-election. The JD(U) is with the ‘oppositionless government’ in Nagaland while it is a member of the INDIA bloc at the national level. As such, it is unlikely that JD(U) would field a candidate. NPP is also not likely to set a candidate given its poor performance in the constituency in the last election. NPF simply does not exist in the constituency now. And the BJP will not be contesting the bye-election as per its seat-sharing deal with the NDPP. Therefore, in most likelihood, it is going to be a straight contest between the Congress and the NDPP in this bye-election.
A quick look at the constituency also reveals another interesting aspect. Noke Wangnao won 9 out of the 12 elections held in Tapi since 1974. The 3 times that he lost were against Congress candidates, the most recent being in 2008. He also lost to Congress during 1993 and 1998 elections when the Congress party was at its peak in Nagaland.
Given the political landscape in Nagaland, the Congress party’s fortunes seem bleak. However, the Tapi bye-election offers a glimmer of hope for the party’s resurgence.
The ruling government and the NDPP will no doubt want to retain the Tapi seat and will do everything in its power to ensure that it does not lose it. However, a win for the Congress is what most neutral observers would probably want. After all, at this juncture, even a lone opposition voice in the Assembly would be nothing short of a miracle.