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It remains to be seen if the Core Committee will be able to convince the NSCN(IM) to ink the final solution once they return from Delhi as asked by Amit Shah. In the meantime, the Union Government has washed off its hands for the moment by entrusting the Nagaland state government to go back home and convince the NSCN(IM) to toe the line. By submitting the July 16 resolution of the Core Committee to the Union Government, the state government was hoping to play its role of a facilitator and play smart but it seems their plan has been foiled. All of a sudden, the ball is now in the state government’s court.
For the government of India, the resolution of the Naga political issue, which to them is holding up the dawn of peace and progress in the North East, will be a landmark achievement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There are reports of expectations emanating from the Ministry of Home Affairs that a breakthrough in the deadlocks with the NSCN (IM) is likely very soon. For the Government of India and the ruling BJP, finding a solution to the Naga issue will project Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the champion of peace, progress and development of the North East because the Naga issue is seen as the foremost hurdle to lasting peace in North East India vis-à-vis Act East policy. Further, the Government of India cannot afford to give to the Nagas what it took from Kashmir – a separate flag and constitution. At the same time, BJP would not want to have failed on its ‘Election for Solution’ slogan of 2018 with the next election just around the corner.
With the signing of the ceasefire and the Framework Agreement, it appears the GoI’s problems are bigger than the Naga problem itself insofar as solving the Naga issue is concerned. There are plenty of possibilities that the GoI can ‘resolve’ the Naga problem with NSCN(IM) on its terms – the only question is, will that solve the real Naga issue?
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