With the announcement of their candidates by the NDPP and BJP on Thursday, electioneering in Nagaland is now sure to pick up tempo. With the NPF set to announce its list of candidates on Friday, and with the other parties expected to follow suit soon, it is now clear that it’s going to be election, not solution. ENPO demand for Frontier Nagaland state, although talks are ongoing, is also not likely to stop the elections from happening now. Although no candidate has filed nomination papers as of date, there are still four more days left and they are expected to be busy days at the Returning Officers’ office chambers. We will be hearing a lot of propaganda and will also be entertained with a lot of political drama. This upcoming election promises to be interesting in so many ways. We have already seen some surprises even before the actual process has begun. The NDPP is fielding 2 women candidates while the BJP has fronted 1. Whether they win or not is another thing but the fact that political parties are now fielding women candidates in Nagaland is a welcome development.
Another interesting development till now is that 15 sitting MLAs have not been given party tickets by the NDPP-BJP alliance. This shows that the NDPP-BJP alliance is poised to sweep the elections or is going to be a debacle. The former is more likely to happen, though. With the NPF rendered toothless after 21 of its MLAs jumped ship, there is no worthy opponent in Nagaland that is likely to stop the NDPP-BJP onslaught. Anything can happen in politics and it is too early to write off the NPF and the other parties like Congress and JD(U), but it is difficult to even try to predict an upset here. The only upsets that can be expected are some of the big names losing their seats. Otherwise, the NDPP-BJP alliance is likely to return to power. The BJP by sticking to the 40:20 seat sharing deal with NDPP, despite some intra-party protests, has actually concretized the prospects of NDPP-BJP returning to power in Nagaland. Some of the aspiring candidates including those sitting MLAs who were not given the ‘ruling’ NDPP-BJP tickets might spring surprises but it is too early to predict major upsets.
Meanwhile, in Mokokchung, although there are no women candidates as of now, it is interesting to see some new names in the fray. Among the NDPP-BJP candidates in Mokokchung, there are at least three debutants and it is likely that there will be more new entrants from the other parties which we shall see soon. Without undermining the other parties, it is probably only the NPF or the Congress that can pull off some surprises in Mokokchung. However, as things stand, it is difficult to say if the embers of the two parties are glowing or dying. We know that electoral politics in Nagaland and in Mokokchung in particular are usually not aligned solely along party lines and there are many underlying dynamics that determine the outcome of an election. It is hoped that there will be free and fair elections, no violence and no loss of lives.