The United States will hold its presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, in what is shaping up to be a high-stake contest between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The race has attracted international attention, with both candidates intensifying their campaigns in critical battleground states as Election Day approaches. This election, held as per tradition on the first Tuesday in November, could signal a new direction for US politics.
The tradition of holding federal elections on the first Tuesday in November dates back to 1845, when Congress selected the timing to accommodate an agrarian society. By scheduling elections after the autumn harvest, Congress ensured that farmers, who often travelled long distances to polling locations, could participate. While this timing remains unchanged, the practice has faced criticism for not being a federal holiday. Nonetheless, several states now require employers to provide time off for voting.
Vice-President Kamala Harris, who made history in 2020 as the first Black and South Asian woman to serve as vice president, is aiming for another ground-breaking achievement. As the Democratic nominee, Harris could become the first female president of the United States and the first woman of color to hold the office. Harris has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, adding potential appeal for voters in key Midwestern states.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is seeking an unusual return to the White House after his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. His campaign, however, faces considerable legal and political challenges, as he is the first former or sitting US president to face criminal charges. Despite these controversies, Trump remains highly influential within the Republican Party, reiterating his pledge to “Make America Great Again.” Trump’s choice of running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, is expected to strengthen his appeal among rural and working-class voters due to Vance’s conservative stance and popularity.
Crucial demographics could hold the key to a Trump victory as race tightens
Key voting blocs that typically vote for Democrats are underperforming compared to previous elections, raising concerns for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. At the same time, increased turnout among some reliably Republican demographics could give former President Donald Trump the edge he needs.
One significant challenge for Democrats is the low turnout among urban voters. There is currently a 12.8-point deficit in urban voter turnout across battleground states compared to 2020. In contrast, rural voter turnout, which tends to favor Republicans, is only down by 3.9 points. Given that urban voters are largely Democratic, this gap could hurt Harris’ chances.
A gender divide is also evident. While women generally vote in greater numbers and lean Democratic, their turnout has dipped by 7.9 points across swing states compared to 2020. Meanwhile, male turnout has decreased by 7 points. This decline in women’s votes, combined with a dip in male support, could pose a significant hurdle for Harris.
Furthermore, the turnout among black and Hispanic voters has dropped, with a 10.1-point deficit among black voters and an 11.7-point decline among Hispanic voters in battleground states. Both groups have historically supported Democrats, so these declines are worrisome for Harris’ campaign.
Although early signs favor Trump, the outcome of the race remains uncertain.