By 2050, the global community, according to World Health Organization (WHO) estimates, is projected to witness a staggering 77 percent increase in cancer cases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), WHO’s cancer agency, has released a report predicting that in just over two decades, more than 35 million new cancer cases will emerge. This marks a substantial 77 per cent surge from the estimated 20 million cases recorded in 2022.
Despite the alarming statistics, Dr Freddie Bray, Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, emphasizes that the impact of this increase “will not be felt evenly across countries.”
In its report released ahead of World Cancer Day on 4 February, the IARC anticipates a significant rise in the global cancer burden. The WHO, in its press release, states, “The rapidly growing global cancer burden reflects both population ageing and growth, as well as changes to people’s exposure to risk factors, several of which are associated with socioeconomic development.”
Tobacco, alcohol, and obesity were identified as the primary factors driving the escalating incidence of cancer, with air pollution mentioned as a key driver of environmental risk factors.
The report predicts that countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) will experience the most substantial absolute increase in the incidence of cancer cases, with an additional 4.8 million new cases projected in 2050 compared to the 2022 estimates.
Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, in a statement, expressed, “The impact of this increase will not be felt evenly across countries of different HDI levels. Those who have the fewest resources to manage their cancer burdens will bear the brunt of the global cancer burden.”
WHO’s global estimates highlight “striking inequalities” in human development. Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, points out, “Women in lower HDI countries are 50 per cent less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women in high HDI countries, yet they are at a much higher risk of dying from the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment.”
India: Over 14.1 lakh new cases and 9.1 lakh deaths in 2022
In 2022, India witnessed a concerning surge in cancer cases, with more than 14.1 lakh new diagnoses and over 9.1 lakh fatalities attributed to the disease, according to the latest global burden estimates by the World Health Organization (WHO). Breast cancer emerged as the most prevalent form of the disease.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the cancer agency of WHO, detailed that cancers of the lip, oral cavity, and lung were predominant among men, constituting 15.6% and 8.5% of new cases, respectively. In contrast, breast and cervix cancers were the most frequent among women, accounting for nearly 27% and 18% of new cases.
The IARC’s analysis also revealed that within five years of a cancer diagnosis, approximately 32.6 lakh individuals in India were still alive. Globally, the agency estimated a staggering 2 crore new cancer cases and 97 lakh deaths, with about 5.3 crore people surviving within five years of diagnosis.
The report emphasized that globally, one in five individuals develops cancer during their lifetime, with approximately one in nine men and one in twelve women succumbing to the disease. In India, the calculated risk of developing cancer before the age of 75 was 10.6%, while the risk of death from cancer by the same age was 7.2%.
The IARC’s estimates underscored that ten types of cancer collectively constituted around two-thirds of new cases and deaths globally in 2022. Lung cancer emerged as the most prevalent (12.4% of total new cases) and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths (19% of total deaths), potentially linked to persistent tobacco use in Asia.
Breast cancer in women ranked as the second most commonly occurring cancer (11.6% of total new cases), contributing to nearly 7% of global cancer deaths. The agency highlighted the impact of population aging, growth, and changes in risk factors associated with socioeconomic development as factors contributing to the growing cancer burden globally.
Tobacco, alcohol, and obesity were identified as key contributors to the rising cancer incidence, with air pollution remaining a significant environmental risk factor, according to the report.