The sixth phase of the Lok Sabha elections is taking place today, with 57 parliamentary constituencies from seven States/Union Territories heading to the polls under the scorching sun. Meanwhile, campaigning has reached fever pitch for the seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha polls. Polling in this phase will be held for 57 parliamentary constituencies across seven states and a Union Territory on 1 June.
The INDIA bloc is confident of securing a ‘clear’ mandate, while the BJP-led NDA is optimistic about securing more than 400 seats, with Narendra Modi poised to return as prime minister for a record third consecutive term.
On 4 June, when the results are declared, either Modi or someone from the INDIA bloc will become the prime minister. Either way, a new government will be formed, and the country will move on. Meanwhile, how will the election results impact Nagaland? We are likely to witness some dramatic developments. While Nagaland itself promises the potential for a surprise result, there will undoubtedly be some fascinating drama if the election results diverge from expectations.
The most immediate impact of the Lok Sabha election results will be felt in the subsequent Nagaland ULB elections. In the unlikely event of the NDA losing power, we might see a surge in Congress candidates in the ULB elections. The Congress party is already buoyed by its performance in the Lok Sabha polls, where it is believed to have exceeded expectations. However, if the NDA retains power, the NDPP might be compelled to accommodate the BJP once again. There has been no official announcement yet on whether the NDPP-BJP pre-poll alliance in the last two assembly elections will be replicated in the ULB elections. NDPP naturally would prefer to contest the ULB elections independently, but the BJP would likely insist on sticking to the seat-sharing formula.
The 40-20 seat-sharing arrangement between NDPP and BJP, viewed in percentile terms, stands at 67% and 33% – a significant advantage for the BJP. If the NDA returns to power, the BJP may seek not only a seat-sharing agreement for the ULB polls but could even push for a 50-50 seat-sharing deal. Why? The ULB elections present the best opportunity for the BJP to expand its influence to the grassroots level. The BJP will assert itself more, and the chief minister may be compelled to concede.
The filing of nominations for the ULB elections will commence on 7 June, just three days after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results. The ensuing ULB elections promise to be intriguing.