The answer is Rio

The results of the elections to the 14th Nagaland Legislative Assembly have been announced, and it is now amply clear that there is not going to be a change in the government. Some new faces, including two women, will now become familiar public figures. There might not be an opposition in the assembly, again. The Congress has been totally annihilated and the NPF with just 2 MLAs is not qualified to be the opposition. NCP is the only party that has the potential to become the official opposition in the assembly as it has won the threshold of 10% of the assembly seats but it is too early to make any assumptions as of now. Naga politicians are not good at sitting in the opposition bench and will join the ruling parties in the government given the slightest opportunity. Whole cohort of elected MLAs defecting to the ruling dispensation is a regular practice in Nagaland.

About 27 sitting MLAs lost the just concluded assembly election which, on paper, might seem like an anti-incumbency wave but a closer look at it indicates that most of these candidates lost because they were not given the ‘ruling’ party ticket. The fate or grit of the new political parties like LJP (RV) and RPI (A) or even the not-very-new parties like JD (U), NPP and NCP are yet to be known. The Congress and the RPP, who were quite vocal opposition parties from outside the assembly before the election failed to send any representative to the house. NPF, the party that won the most number of seats in the last election, is now rendered toothless. Even the BJP could not improve on its tally as they won just 12 seats this time, just like in 2018, and they do not have the numbers to call the shots in the government. All of these points suggest just one answer – and that answer is Rio. He has cemented his position as the undisputed leader of Nagaland. It is Rio’s government, not NDPP’s or BJP’s.

The national BJP has been making a lot of noise basking in reflected glory once the results were announced but they must know better that Rio has got their wings clipped. One wonders if the BJP will be able to fulfill their election manifesto. A special package for Eastern Nagaland, a Naga cultural research fund, free education for girls till post-graduation, free two-wheeler to meritorious girls and two free LPG cylinders, an Eastern Nagaland Development Board, a scheme for holistic development of border villages situated close to Indo-Myanmar border, besides others, were the promises made. The manifesto also promised to provide self-employment opportunities to two lakh youths in the next five years. With such lofty promises, and elected to power yet with a lesser than desired number of legislators, the BJP will be hard pressed.

Meanwhile, while many allege that most of the successful candidates won by money power, there were some candidates who genuinely fought with the principle of clean election. The votes won by those candidates, though they were not elected, matters. The increasing number of NOTA votes matter. In spite of the doom and gloom, there is reason to believe that there is hope for change – or at least that’s what one would like to believe.